2024 VIVO RIO PRO ODDS AND PREDICTIONS
The VIVO Rio Pro contest in Saquarema is a challenge to forecast. The contest site could present soft, backwash kind of lefts that are rippable and suited to airs, favouring the goofy footers. Or, it might feature wedging, draining right-handers in the other corner of the beach, definitely favouring the natural footers. This unpredictability adds an exciting element to the competition.
Either way, Rio is usually a contest that features aerial surfing, with judging criteria based around sticking and riding out huge moves with the speed, power, and flow required as basic building blocks.
Filipe Toledo would have been the firm favourite. Kelly Slater would be the most unlikely to get a decent result here, but Toledo is still out. Slater wasn't awarded any particular concession to surf in this contest. Whether he would attend or not is another question.
Still, John John is currently rampant. The Hawaiian is around 11,000 points ahead, showing that he has the hunger this year like never before. While his surfing will always shine through when the waves are heaving, big Pipe is his favourite contest venue, and he is no slouch when it comes to air moves and all sorts of futuristic and imaginative moves. If the waves are gutless, he might be at a slight disadvantage, but apart from that, he is the firm favourite.
His runaway lead will open up a can of worms at the end of the year, though. Should he enter the finals at Trestles with that lead and not get another world title, it will likely be the last time we see him compete on the CT Tour. He will join Carissa and Stephanie on the 'alternative routes to professional and endorsed surfing ', which could include pursuing other competitive surfing routes, focusing on free surfing and content creation, heading out on his boat into the yonder, or possibly transitioning to coaching and mentoring.
FAVORITES
John John Florence
Odds:
TBD
John John has everything in his repertoire, and he has 'BMT' (Big Match Temperament) to match, so he can overcome any conditions and any competitor. If he keeps going at this rate, he could eventually have a points tally that resembles Martin Potter's in 1989. He wouldn't be able to match the actual points – more events back then, so more points – but he could be in a similar sort of spread percentage-wise from second place by the end of the year.
John John has found his magic equipment and has the clearest head we have seen so far, so it would be a cert that – bar all being well with the kid – he will be the event winner.
Griffin Colapinto
Odds:
TBD
Another surfer who is absolutely focused on the win right now, Griff, has some anger to use to his advantage after his silly encounter with and interference from Joao Chianca in El Salvador. His somewhat gracious comments on social media, blaming himself entirely, show his mind space where there are no excuses for second place and the only way to win is to do it so convincingly that there is no doubt in anyone's mind, let alone the judges.
He is a small wave wizard, has every aerial trick known to man, and is as fit as possible.
He has also worked extensively on mental training and mind conditioning, so he is currently sitting with the deadliest combination of skills and intent on the Tour. He just needs his two waves every heat and could be unstoppable.
Gabriel Medina
Odds:
TBD
When the fire awakens with Gabriel, he is the most dangerous surfer on the planet. With big wave prowess combined with small wave nous, he is the one surfer who has proven one of the most versatile over the last season or two. Medina has also become very gracious and endeared surf fans to him so much more than when he was an upstart. You can sometimes feel the crowd willing him on, which all plays a part in the role of positive energy and vibes. Medina has few flaws in his game, and he just loves the left ramps at Saquarama, so this contest could be his to lose.
SLEEPERS
Italo Ferreira
Odds:
TBD
Back in the game after a masterful win at Chopes followed by an average result but a scintillating performance at El Sal, Italo looks like he is on the comeback trail. Rio is one of his favourite places to surf, and he has a track record that shows that he can take to the skies at will when it comes to small surf and average conditions.
Despite not being the most popular surfer on Tour at the moment, Ferreira has everything in his mix to take a win in Rio, and he definitely has some unbridled energy right now. If he keeps it calm and doesn't overdo it, he could be a solid possibility of a finals berth and a win.
Yago Dora
Odds:
TBD
Never a dull moment when Yago enters the fray, the likable third in 2017 as a wildcard and won the event outright last year, taking out Ethan Ewing in the finals. The six-foot goofy footer from Florianópolis has all sorts of tricks and cannot be discounted in any conditions.
He is also a popular surfer, with crowds and Brazilian support behind him at every stop, with people wanting the likable guy to do well. A popular surfer to watch, his dynamic style reveals an excellent technique underneath it, and he has never shown any sort of apprehension for his opponents since he started on the Tour. He might flounder should it become tiny for the event, but it most likely will have a bit of size, and he could quickly ricochet to a finals berth with his powerful, nuggety style.
LONGSHOT
Jordy Smith
Odds:
TBD
A second in 2019 and a win in 2013 reveal that Jordy is good to go in Rio. At 36 years old, he is a veteran on Tour now, which means that he knows his time of top performances is limited, and he has to break out at some stage.
His disappointing loss to fellow South African Matt McGillivray must have smarted as he had that heat in the bag, and a minor incident like stepping on his leash put him off balance on a set wave. He didn't recover, wobbled through the inside, and lost valuable scoring potential. Still, he is at number 5 on the rankings and is unprepared to lose that berth. Expect to see some fireworks from the big guy, who always feels that small waves are also totally to his advantage. It is a Long Shot, to be sure, but those are the good ones.
